Suffolk University’s Political Research Center Director David Paleologos discussed some of the critical issues that are set to shape the upcoming presidential election Oct. 20 as part of the Ford Hall Forum’s “The Road to 2024: America’s Next Unprecedented Presidential Election.”
Presented by the political science and legal studies department and the GBH Forum Network, the event was held in the Smith Commons in Sargent Hall and moderated by NBC 10 Boston and NECN anchor Latoyia Edwards. It was also part of a series of events for this year’s Suffolk Weekend Oct. 19-21.
Paleologos explained the results of a Sawyer Business School and USA Today poll, conducted Sept. 9-11, that gave students at the business school the opportunity to write questions for a nationwide survey about the state of the U.S. economy. The results displayed how voters feel about the economy and how they said it would impact their vote in the 2024 presidential election.
A majority of Americans surveyed said the economy was getting worse. As a result, they have cut back spending on certain habits like going out to eat and buying new clothes.
Paleologos broke down the results of the poll by category and question to point out the similarities and differences between the answers. He noted that the individuals most affected by inflation and economic turmoil are those who earn less than $50,000 a year, a key voting bloc for the next election.
“You have to think about who especially is being hurt, and as one would expect people who earn less are going to be hurt the most,” Paleologos said.
Regarding the upcoming presidential election, voters surveyed said they trusted former President Donald Trump more than President Joe Biden on economic issues, with 47% of voters saying they trusted Trump and 36% saying they trusted Biden.
This question’s results showed an interesting shift in the under-$50,000 bloc of voters, with a majority of them saying they favored Trump over Biden when it comes to the economy as well. This is unexpected, Palelogos noted, as the bloc largely supported Biden in the 2020 election.
Paleologos said Biden needs the under-$50,000 bloc to support him in 2024 for a chance of winning the election.
Paleologos emphasized that opinions change as time goes on, and as the presidential election draws nearer, new polls could reveal results that differ from previous surveys.
“Polls are a snapshot in time,” Paleologos said. “Events do drive public opinion.”
Paleologos also discussed the results of a poll conducted by Suffolk, in partnership with The Boston Globe and USA Today released Oct. 4, which surveyed likely New Hampshire voters about the Republican primary.
The poll revealed Republicans overwhelmingly favor Trump over any other candidate, but showed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in the number two spot ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. About 19% of likely voters say they would vote for Haley if the Republican primary was held today.
Paleologos said in order for Haley or DeSantis to have a chance at winning the Republican nomination, they would have to announce a joint ticket soon with the hopes of drawing support away from Trump, which is unlikely to happen.
Edwards closed the event by fielding questions from the audience about the largest issues voters prioritized, political messaging and age in politics.
