Robert F. Kennedy Jr., current presidential candidate and nephew of former Democratic President John F. Kennedy has chosen to run as an independent instead of with the Democratic party. This decision will affect each party and may give him a better chance in the election, but his chance of actually winning the presidency is slim.
Independent candidates in U.S. elections generally don’t receive a large percentage of the vote; the traditional two-party system prevents third-party candidates from gaining ground in the elections and favors Democrat and Republican candidates. With this tradition in mind, it’s likely Kennedy will not be able to secure the presidency running independently.
Originally a Democrat following in his father Robert F. Kennedy and uncle’s legacy, Kennedy switched to running independently to avoid associating with either party, saying his “intention is to spoil [the election] for both of them,” referring to his opponents former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
Kennedy has a history of hypocrisy and contradiction and has gone against his own views to support causes he previously denounced.
One of these is his insistence that he is not against vaccines, yet he has an anti-vaccination organization and has spread misinformation and anti-vaccination propaganda. He also has claimed to be an environmentalist, yet is a prominent user and supporter of Bitcoin and the rights of Americans to use it, which uses up a significant amount of energy and which many environmentalists oppose.
Due to these false and inconsistent claims, the Democratic party doesn’t seem to be taking his campaign very seriously: the DNC declined to comment on the situation. The Democratic party has also been focusing on operations against third parties and anyone who may harm Biden’s chances, so these efforts will likely have effects on Kennedy’s campaign.
On the other hand, Kennedy is more popular among Republicans than Democrats, meaning more votes would be taken away from Trump as right-wing voters choose Kennedy. He has been attempting to cater to both parties but neither has collectively adopted a solid opinion about him.
Despite Kennedy’s popularity with the Republican party, party figures seem to have mixed opinions on him. According to ABC News, Trump called Kennedy a “very smart person” before his campaign began to attack and speak out against him.
Many voters are leaning toward choosing Kennedy due to his neutrality and because they want to go against their party and are frustrated at the lack of progress and cooperation; they aren’t necessarily voting for him and his ideals, but rather the position that he holds as an independent candidate.
Even Kennedy’s own siblings are unsupportive of his campaign. They put out a joint statement on their disappointment at his running, calling his campaign “dangerous.” However, they aren’t the only ones who consider Kennedy’s campaign to be dangerous.
Mario Ceballos, who runs a political action group, Honor Pac, said that Kennedy’s “esoteric, dangerous opinions” will “hurt the same people that his father and uncle wanted to help.” Ceballos believes Kennedy’s contradictions and inconsistent opinions mar the legacy of his father and uncle and are harmful.
Due to the lack of support, even in his own family, Kennedy’s chance at winning is small: it’s more likely Biden or Trump will be reelected, in part because they have already held office before.
Although running independently will help Kennedy in the election, it’s unlikely he could win the election anyway. Often, the president is reelected for a second term. Because both Trump and Biden have already established strong followings, it’s unlikely Kennedy will be able to establish a platform strong enough to overtake each of theirs.
