Sarina Tracy
Journal Staff
Deval Patrick’s November 2 win in the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial race marked the fifth correct prediction of statewide races, announced by Suffolk’s Political Research Center. Headed by David Paleologos, the Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) made a conclusion in early fall of a probable final margin of seven points in the race for governor, with Patrick leading 46 percent, and Baker trailing with 39 percent. The actual statewide results concluded with Patrick leading 49 percent over Baker’s 42 percent.
The forecasted margin of seven points on October 28 equated with the actual margin of seven points, which gives the research center a 100 percent accuracy rate in the predictive outcomes of the past five Massachusetts state races. This accomplishment is made even sweeter by the previous onslaught of criticism in regards to the methodology of Suffolk’s surveys. Reporters, columnists, bloggers and Right-Wing operatives were not shy in deeming Paleologos and his team as “skewed” to the Left, catering with loose voter screens and inappropriate quotas. These claims of inaccuracy and bias were shattered on Election Day.
Paleologos, the director of the research center, is humble in his success. “It’s always nice to find the late nights have paid off,” he said. “There’s also some vindication, especially as our methodology has come under fire recently. I’d attribute our accuracy to fine tuning our surveys in ways that other organizations typically don’t. Our secret sauce is attention to detail.”
Founded in 2002, Suffolk’s Political Research Center has consistently delivered accurate and precise predictions in Massachusetts political races and several other battleground political states. It is also the only educational institution in the United States to have both a FOX and NBC news affiliate, which allots Democratic, as well as Republican credibility.
In 2002, the SUPRC was the only political research center in the region to correctly predict the outcomes of the Massachusetts Democratic Primary and Final Election in percentage and actual votes. The center’s Bellwether model made headlines when two surveys in New Hampshire were the only statistical indicators in the country showing Hilary Clinton winning the state’s presidential primary against then-Senator Barack Obama in 2008. Clinton did, as predicted by the SUPRC, win with a margin of less than three points. The only university in the United States to have pioneered a successful Bellwether Predictor Model, the SUPRC is a forerunner in political analysis. Paleologos’ model is scheduled for publication in the April 2011 edition of American Behavioral Sciences.
The reputation of SUPRC’s credibility and accuracy is one noticed and mentioned by many news media sources, including C-SPAN, “Meet the Press,” CNN, MSNBC, USA Today, The New York Times and numerous other news outlets. It’s standing of reputability, accessibility and precision is one that shows in this accomplishment, and does Suffolk proud.
