China is ready to overtake the U.S. in terms of scientific research, possibly by as early as 2013, according to a Royal Society study.  The Royal Society, the United Kingdom’s leading national science academy, began the study in 1996 by counting the number of scientific research papers in recognized international journals.  The research papers where used to rank each country of origin on a global scale.

In 2010, the China Research Institute for Science Popularization gave China a mark of 3.27 percent in scientific literacy. This means that three out of 100 Chinese citizens possessed sufficient scientific knowledge.  At the time, this ranking placed China behind Europe and the U.S. in terms of general scientific knowledge.

Research papers can be used as a means to measure a country’s scientific effort. The country that gave the world gunpowder, the compass, printing, and paper, is now taking the lead.   According to the Royal Society, this endeavor by China is “especially striking.”

The main focus of the study, entitled “Knowledge, Networks, and Nations,” was to chart the dominance of the United States, Europe, and Japan in terms of scientific prowess.

In the first year of the study, 1996, the United States published 292, 513 papers- a figure ten times that of China’s for the same year.  By 2008, China published 184,000 papers, while the U.S. produced just 300,000.  China’s development had increased seven fold.

Earlier estimates suggested China would overtake the United States sometime after 2020.  Now, based on their rate of expansion, China has already taken the second leading spot from Britain, and is forecasted to pass the U.S. in as little as two year’s time.

China’s expansion, in terms of scientific research, has been attributed to the country’s boost in funding scientific research and development.  Since 1999, China’s spending grew 20 percent, an average of around $100 billion.  The country also saw nearly 1.5 million students majoring in science and engineering graduate from Chinese universities since 2006.

The Chair of the report, Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith, said he was “not surprised” by the reports findings.

“I think this is positive, of great benefit,” said Smith, according to a Taiwanese based Want China Times article.  “It does serve as a wake-up call for us to not become complacent.”

The report does not suggest a decline in U.S. scientific research output, but proposes the likelihood of France and Japan as the ones who will take China head-on in the future of scientific success.